An Alternative Explanation Of The Chance Of Casting A Pivotal Vote

This paper is about a model of uncertainty in voting that allows for a schedule of people`s preferences for one party over another, that gives rise to a chance of casting a pivotal vote which is small but not, as often supposed, infinitesimal, that is not inconsistent with evidence about the chance of casting a pivotal vote and that preserves a role for self-interest, along with a duty to vote, in the decision whether to vote or abstain.