Recent QED Working Papers

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#1535.
Stelios Arvanitis
Frequentist Model Averaging with Nash Bargaining: A Stochastic Dominance Approach

Within the Frequentist Model Averaging framework for linear models, we introduce a multi-objective model averaging methodology that extends both the generalized Jackknife Model Averaging (JMA) and the Mallows Model Averaging (MMA) criteria. Our approach constructs estimators based on stochastic dominance principles and explores averaging methods that minimize multiple scalarizations of the joint criterion integrating MMA and JMA. Additionally, we propose an estimator that can be interpreted as a Nash bargaining solution between the competing scalar criteria. We establish the asymptotic…

#1534.
Stelios Arvanitis
Universal Choice Spaces and Expected Utility: A Banach-type Functorial Fixed Point

This paper utilizes a Banach-type fixed point theorem in a functorial context to develop Universal Choice Spaces for addressing decision problems, focusing on expected utility and preference uncertainty. This generates an infinite sequence of optimal selection problems involving probability measures on utility sets. Each solution at a given stage addresses the preference ambiguity from the previous stage, enabling optimal choices at that level. The Universal Choice Space is characterized as a collection of finite-dimensional vectors of probability distributions, with the mth component…

#1533.
Stelios Arvanitis
Norm Constrained Empirical Portfolio Optimization with Stochastic Dominance: Robust Optimization Non-Asymptotics

The present note provides an initial theoretical explanation of the way norm regularizations may provide a means of controlling the non-asymptotic probability of False Dominance classification for empirically optimal portfolios satisfying empirical Stochastic Dominance restrictions in an iid setting. It does so via a dual characterization of the norm-constrained problem, as a problem of Distributional Robust Optimization. This enables the use of concentration inequalities involving the Wasserstein distance from the empirical distribution, to obtain an upper bound for the non-asymptotic…

#1532.
Stelios Arvanitis
Sparse spanning portfolios and under-diversification with second-order stochastic dominance

We develop and implement methods for determining whether relaxing sparsity constraints on portfolios improves the investment opportunity set for risk-averse investors.We formulate a new estimation procedure for sparse second-order stochastic spanning based on a greedy algorithm and Linear Programming. We show the optimal recovery of the sparse solution asymptotically whether spanning holds or not. From large equity datasets, we estimate the expected utility loss due to possible under-diversification, and find that there is no benefit from expanding a sparse opportunity set beyond 45 assets…

#1531.
Charles Beach
Testing for Canadian Distributional Change: Declining Middle Class, Rising Top Income Shares and Widening Income Gaps

This paper combines quantile-based disaggregative statistics and standard error formulas for the statistics to examine changes in the distribution of individuals’ incomes in Canada within a standard statistical inference framework.  Analysis focuses on decile means and income shares, Lorenz curves (as indicators of inequality change) and generalized Lorenz curves (as indicators of change in economic well-being).  The analysis confirms major previous findings as highly statistically significant and reveals much new distributional detail.  Significant and substantial…

#1530.
Charles Beach, Russell Davidson
Empirically Implementing a Social Welfare Inference Framework

This paper builds on recent econometric developments establishing distribution-free statistical inference methods for quantile means and income shares for a sample distribution of microdata to propose an approach to empirically Implement several dominance criteria for comparing economic well-being and general income inequality between distributions. It provides straightforward variance-covariance formulas in a set of practical empirical procedures for formally testing economic well-being and inequality comparisons such as rank dominance, Lorenz dominance and generalized Lorenz dominance…

#1529.
Christopher Cotton, Daniel Teeter
Breaking Down Canada’s Internal Trade Barriers

This paper provides an overview of Canada’s internal trade barriers that limit cross-province trade and competition. It summarizes the different types of barriers, how costly they are for consumers and the economy, recent efforts to reduce them, and why they persist. It then summarizes 22 reforms and investments that could be undertaken by Canadian provincial and federal governments to break down the barriers. The paper classifies these reforms into four categories and presents several strategies for incentivizing reform.

#1525.
Alex Chernoff, Allen Head, Beverly Lapham
Markups, Pass-Through, and Firm Heterogeneity with Sequentially Mixed Search

We study the determination of market power at the firm and industry levels when heterogeneous firms compete for sales to ex ante homogeneous buyers in a market with both directed and random search and free entry of firms that differ in productivity. Search and the distribution of productivity across active firms generate distributions of equilibrium prices and markups that we relate to variation in the elasticity of demand at the firm level. With directed search at the outset, a shock that raises the matching rate for buyers improves conditions for them and tends to lower markups. Random…

#1524.
Alper Arslan, Robert Clark, Qidi Hu
Auctions vs Negotiations under Corruption: Evidence from Land Sales in China

This study investigates whether corruption differentially affects contracting through auctions and negotiations. Using data on Chinese land-market transactions, where corruption is known to be present, we first show that, on average, it exerts similar effects on transactions carried out via auctions and negotiation. However, this finding masks important heterogeneity – auctions
featuring healthy competition are less affected by corruption, and significantly less so than negotiation. We then develop a simple model of bidding under the possibility of corruption that rationalizes our…

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