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Recent QED Working Papers

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#1449.

Steven Lehrer, Tian Xie

The Bigger Picture: Combining Econometrics with Analytics Improve Forecasts of Movie Success

There exists significant hype regarding how much machine learning and incorporating social media data can improve forecast accuracy in commercial applications. To assess if the hype is warranted, we use data from the film industry in simulation experiments that contrast econometric approaches with tools from the predictive analytics literature. Further, we propose new strategies that combine elements from each literature in a bid to capture richer patterns of heterogeneity in the underlying relationship governing revenue. Our results demonstrate the importance of social media data…

#1448.

Christopher Cotton, Ardyn Nordstrom, jordan_naowski_wp, Eric Richert

Information and Advocacy Campaigns in Support of Girls' Education Increase Math Performance and Enrolment

We evaluate a large, randomized UKaid Girls' Education Challenge project in rural Zimbabwe, where the staggered rollout of the project allows us to isolate the impact of intervention components specifically intended to improve individual and community-wide knowledge of and support for girls' education. Such advocacy and information campaigns are often included as components of major development projects, but previous work has been unable to isolate their importance and effectiveness separately from the broader projects. We show that advocacy and information campaigns increased mathematics…

#1447.

Robert Clark, mario.samano

Incentivized Mergers and Cost Effciency: Evidence from the Electricity Distribution Industry

In an effort to lower costs of provision, authorities have encouraged the consolidation of providers for a number of services such as electricity distributors, school boards, hospitals, and municipalities. In this paper we propose an endogenous merger process to evaluate the impact of government-provided incentives on consolidation patterns,
and to evaluate the resulting outcomes. The process takes as input estimates from a stochastic frontier cost model, which yields an average cost curve for the industry. Policy parameters are used to simulate final configurations using offers that…

#1446.

Robert Clark, Decio Coviello, adleverano

Complementary bidding and the collusive arrangement: Evidence from an antitrust investigation

A number of recent papers have proposed that a pattern of isolated winning bids may be associated with collusion. In contrast, others have suggested that bid clustering, especially of the two lowest bids, is indicative of collusion. In this paper, we present evidence from an actual procurement cartel uncovered during an anticollusion investigation that reconciles these two points of view and shows that both patterns arise naturally together as part of a cartel arrangement featuring complementary bidding. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we compare the extent of winning-bid…

#1445.

Robert Clark, Shaoteng Li

The strategic response of banks to macroprudential policies: Evidence from mortgage stress tests in Canada

Following the crisis, macroprudential regulations targeting mortgage-market vulnerabilities were widely adopted, their success often depending on intermediaries' responses. We show that Canadian banks behaved strategically to limit the potency of recently implemented mortgage stress tests, requiring borrower qualification based on the mode of 5-year rates posted by the Big 6 banks rather than transaction rates. The government aimed to cool credit markets, but since many mortgages are government-insured, Big 6 interests were not aligned. Using DiD comparing changes in 5-year spreads with 3-…

#1444.

Christopher Cotton, Brent R. Hickman, Johnlist, Joseph P. Price, SutanukaRoy

Productivity Versus Motivation in Adolescent Human Capital Production: Evidence from a Structurally-Motivated Field Experiment

We leverage a field experiment across three distinct school districts to identify key pieces of a structural model of adolescent human capital production. Our focus is inspired by the contemporary psychology of education literature, which expresses learning as a function of the ratio of the time spent on learning to the time needed to learn. By capturing two crucial student-level unobservables—which we denote as academic efficiency (turning inputs into outputs) and time preference (motivation)—our field experiment lends insights into the underpinnings of adolescent skill formation and…

#1443.

Edi Karni, Marie-Louise Vierø

Comparative Incompleteness: Definitions, Behavioral Manifestations and Elicitation

This paper introduces measures of overall incompleteness of preference relations under risk and uncertainty, as well as measures of incompleteness of beliefs and tastes. These measures are used to define "more incomplete than" relations among different preference relations. We show how greater incompleteness is manifested in the representations of decision makers' preferences and illustrate its behavioral implications. In addition, the paper introduces incentive compatible schemes of eliciting the degrees of overall incompleteness and those of…

#1442.

Pejman Bahramian, Glenn Jenkins, Frank Milne

A stakeholder analysis of investments for wind power electricity generation in Ontario

This study uses an ex-post evaluation of the grid-connected wind projects in Ontario, Canada, to quantify the stakeholder impacts of such renewable energy projects. Our study includes a financial, economic and stakeholder analysis of these wind farms. The analysis sheds light on the distributional impacts that arise when there is a significant gap between the incentives created by the financial price paid for electricity generation and the economic value of the electricity generated. The analysis shows that the negotiated power purchase agreements (PPAs) have resulted in a negative outcome…

#1441.

Christopher Cotton, Bahman Kashi, Huw Lloyd-Ellis, Frederic Tremblay

Quantifying the Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Policy Responses on Canada's Provinces in (Almost) Real Time

We develop a methodology to track and quantify the economic impacts of lock-down and re-opening policies by Canadian provinces in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, using data that is available with a relatively short time-lag. To do so, we adapt, calibrate and implement a dynamic, seasonally-adjusted, input-output model with supply constraints. Our framework allows us to quantify potential scenarios for the impacts of lock-down and reopening which allow for dynamic complementarities between industries, seasonal fluctuations, and changes in the composition of demand. Taking account of the…