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MA Essay
Abstract

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) place substantial health and economic burdens on Canadians and the public health system. While not all NCDs can be prevented by improving nutritional health, sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have been linked to higher risks of type 2 diabetes and obesity-related cancers and chronic diseases. The early indicators among nearly 50 local and national SSB taxes around the world have influenced Canadian provinces such as British Columbia and Newfoundland and Labrador to implement their own province-wide SSB tax. With the growing interest in a federal tax, the purpose of this paper is to model the benefits against the costs of implementing a 20% SSB tax in Canada via cost-benefit analysis (CBA). Sensitivity analysis and 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to handle uncertainties in the model. Stakeholder analysis is then utilized to understand how the benefits and costs affect different members of society. Health improvements are presented as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which are then converted into dollar values using the value of a statistical life year (VSLY). The result of the CBA estimates a net present value (NPV) of $25.7 billion, while the cost-effectiveness fails to meet the World Health Organization’s recommended threshold. Taking a less conservative approach increases the NPV four-fold and makes the SSB tax very costeffective. While the model predicts a net benefit to society, concerns still remain around potential job losses in the retail industry and the regressive nature of a flat tax rate.

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