QED Working Paper Number

We develop a methodology to track and quantify the economic impacts of lock-down and re-opening policies by Canadian provinces in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, using data that is available with a relatively short time-lag. To do so, we adapt, calibrate and implement a dynamic, seasonally-adjusted, input-output model with supply constraints. Our framework allows us to quantify potential scenarios for the impacts of lock-down and reopening which allow for dynamic complementarities between industries, seasonal fluctuations, and changes in the composition of demand. Taking account of the observed variation in re-opening strategies across provinces, we estimate the costs of the policy response in term of lost hours of employment and production.

JEL Codes
policy response
policy analysis
scenario analysis
Working Paper