Recent QED Working Papers

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#1545.
John Hartwick
The Stochastic Matrix and Linear Programming

Abstract: We take a stochastic matrix (or Markov matrix) and place the matrix in a linear programming framework. The dual program is in a sense a novel “completion” of the stochastic matrix formulation. We identify the primal linear program (LP) as a “quantity” program (based on a key eigenvalue) and the dual program as a “price” program (turning on an eigenvalue of the transpose matrix). Our approach is to present detailed numerical examples, examples based on particular 3 x 3 stochastic matrices. We do not present new types of evolution “descending from” a stochastic matrix. The linear…

#1544.
Shouyong Shi
Measure Frictional Sorting
This paper constructs an index to measure sorting in a two-sided market with matching friction. The index uses the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the matching partners for each individual and incorporates matching failures as a mass point at the lowest type of the partners. The area between this cdf and the cdf in the efficient allocation without friction represents the reduction in sorting. The sorting index is equal to one minus the aggregate reduction in sorting normalized by the amount under uniform…
#1543.
Christopher Cotton
When Motivation Is Not Enough: Opportunity to Learn and the Roots of Student Disengagement

The correlation between student effort and performance can encourage the belief that underperforming students lack motivation. Yet educational theory suggests that even students who want to learn may disengage when they lack the foundational skills, instructional alignment, resources, or support needed to succeed. Recent causal evidence suggests that students from lower-income and historically marginalized backgrounds are not, on average, less willing to work, but struggle more to convert effort into progress. This essay argues…

#1542.
Luca Corazzini, Christopher Cotton, Enrico Longo
Should Star Performers Lead or Anchor Their Teams? Sequential Contributions in a Threshold Public Goods Experiment

Collective efforts often rely on high-capacity “stars”—star employees, lead investors, or major donors—whose participation disproportionately determines success. Is it better to engage them early to set direction, or later to ensure completion? We investigate this strategic design problem experimentally, where collective success requires coordination on both direction and effort. We find that sequential engagement significantly outperforms simultaneous action, following a clear heuristic: stars should lead when the broader team is disorganized (to focus attention) but anchor…

#1541.
Foroogh Nazzari Chamaki, Glenn P. Jenkins, Frank Milne
Taxation Made Easy: A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Prefilled Sales Tax Returns

Small and medium-sized enterprises incur disproportionately high compliance costs under the current Goods and Services Tax/Harmonized Sales Tax (GST/HST) reporting system. To reduce these costs, some EU and Latin American countries have successfully adopted prefilled tax return systems supported by national e-invoicing infrastructures. Canada has not yet adopted this innovation. This study estimates the economic welfare improvement that would result if Canada were to implement a system of prefilled GST/HST returns. An integrated financial, economic, and stakeholder cost-benefit analysis is…

#1540.
Frank Milne
The Australian Energy Policy Debacle

For the past 20 years, Australia has introduced policies encouraging and subsidizing renewable electricity generation. Since the election of the Australian Labor Party government in 2022, these policies have been accelerated. We show that international evidence of the heavy cost of renewable energy projects has been ignored. Cost-benefit studies show that these projects cannot be justified with any reasonable price for carbon dioxide emissions. Consequently, the Australian economy has suffered greatly increased prices for electricity provided by the grid. In turn, this has increased the…

#1539.
visitor_michael_waldman, Jan Zabojnik
Asymmetric Learning and the CEO Labor Market

Many models of the CEO market build on the classic analyses of Lucas (1978) and Rosen (1982) characterized by full information, a limited role for firm-specific human capital, and efficient allocation of workers across jobs and firms. But empirical evidence is not consistent with this approach. We explore an alternative focused on asymmetry of information between an executive's prospective employer and other potential employers, and an important role for firm-specific human capital. We show that our model better captures findings in the empirical literature concerning the CEO labor market…

#1538.
John Hartwick
The Stochastic Matrix Model of Evolution and Linear Programming

We construct a linear programming model of Darwinian evolution, inspired by "the stochastic matrix model". We present a detailed numerical example based on a 3 X  3 stochastic matrix. The linear program uses the stochastic matrix in the specification of its objective function. The program "selects" from an "input" vector to meet a given next period "output" vector. Novel for a model of Darwinian evolution is the presence of costs and shadow prices.

#1537.
Luke Rawling
Improving the Economic Integration of Canadian Immigrants

Immigrants tend to have substantially worse labour market outcomes than Canadian-born workers. This paper provides an overview of immigrants in the Canadian labour market, describing the key barriers that can arise when changing cultures and labour markets and that can hinder immigrants from realizing their economic potential. It then summarizes the efforts Canada has made to alleviate these barriers and highlights some persistent challenges going forward, such as the current state of foreign credential recognition (FCR) and cautioning against the rise of the two-step immigration scheme.…

Events

  • Micro Fall 2026

Yukihiro Nishimura

Research

Affiliation:  Osaka University

Title:  "Tax Incidence of VAT Enforcement Reform for Foreign Services and Small Businesses in Two-sided Markets".
  • Quant Fall 2026

Enrique Sentana

Research

Affiliation:  CEMFI

Title:  "Score-type tests for Markov switching models" with Dante Amengual, Xinyue Bei and Marine Carrasco.
  • Macro Fall 2026

Sergio Salgado

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Affiliation:  The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania

Title:  
  • Micro Fall 2026

Tomáš Jagelka

Research

Affiliation:  University of Bonn

Title:  
  • Macro Fall 2026

Joseph Mullins

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Affiliation:  University of Minnesota

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  • Quant Fall 2026

Irene Botosaru

Research

Affiliation:  McMaster University

Title: